Inter Milan holds a narrow 2-1 advantage heading into the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final clash against Bayern Munich, which will be played at their home stadium on Wednesday night.
Davide Frattesi scored a late, dramatic winning goal in the first leg, which took place at Bayern Munich's Allianz Arena last Tuesday. This gives Inter a slight edge as they return to their home ground, the San Siro.
After taking an early lead in Bavaria with a fantastic counter-attack, Inter were later pegged back by a goal from Bayern's veteran player, Thomas Muller. However, Simone Inzaghi's Inter team wasn't finished yet.
Just when it seemed Bayern might push for a winning goal, Inter struck back with a counter-attack of their own. They broke away and scored in the 88th minute to regain the lead. Despite a brief lapse in concentration that allowed Muller's goal, Inter maintained their focus and secured a 2-1 victory.
This win puts Inter in a strong position to reach their second Champions League semi-final in the last three years. They are likely to face Barcelona in the next round, the same team they defeated in the 2010 semi-finals on their way to winning the treble (league title, domestic cup, and Champions League).
Last week's victory was Inter's fifth consecutive win in the Champions League, a feat they haven't achieved since their memorable 2009-10 season when they won the competition under Jose Mourinho.
The hosts are also on an impressive 14-game unbeaten streak at the San Siro in the Champions League. Their recent win against Bayern ended the German side's 22-game unbeaten run at home and is now the longest active unbeaten home record in the competition.
Another treble is a possibility for Inter, and their current run of 12 games without a loss across all competitions suggests it will be a tough task to stop them. They demonstrated this form with a comfortable 3-1 win against Cagliari, the current leaders of Serie A, at the weekend.
Inter simply needs to avoid defeat in this midweek match to secure their place in the Champions League semi-finals. This comes before their Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against AC Milan next Wednesday.
Historically, Inter have progressed in 21 out of their previous 23 Champions League ties after winning the first leg. However, one of those defeats occurred last season when they failed to capitalize on a strong first-leg performance and were eliminated by Atletico Madrid in the round of 16.
This gives a glimmer of hope to Bayern Munich, who have only won one of their last eight Champions League ties after losing the first leg. However, that one success was in their most recent such situation, also against Italian opposition in the form of Lazio in last season's round of 16.
Interestingly, Bayern have won all four of their away matches against Inter, with three of those victories coming in the Champions League, and remarkably, without conceding a single goal.
This represents Inter's longest losing streak at home against a single opponent in European competitions. Unless their manager, Vincent Kompany, can orchestrate a turnaround, he will face significant pressure in the Bayern dugout.
The first-leg defeat was Bayern's first loss at home in European competition in four years, since Paris Saint-Germain defeated them in the quarter-finals. They also come into this second leg without particularly strong recent form.
Bayern were fortunate that Bayer Leverkusen stumbled at home over the weekend, as Kompany's team could only manage a 2-2 draw against Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. However, their six-point lead in the league with just five games remaining is starting to look secure.
INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
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Inzaghi made a few changes to his Inter lineup over the weekend, giving key players like Marcus Thuram, Alessandro Bastoni, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan a rest ahead of the second leg.
Mehdi Taremi, who's been out with a muscle injury, made his return to the bench against Cagliari, and Kristjan Asllani is available again after serving a European suspension. That said, both are expected to start on the bench.
Piotr Zielinski and Denzel Dumfries are still out injured. On the left flank, Inzaghi faces a bit of a selection dilemma: Federico Dimarco is fully fit again, but Carlos Augusto has been in outstanding form lately.
As for Bayern, they’ll be missing Jamal Musiala for the rest of the season. That opens the door for Raphael Guerreiro to potentially start in the number 10 role again—he impressed off the bench against Dortmund, even though it was Müller who scored after coming on late.
In goal, young Jonas Urbig will continue to deputize, with Neuer’s return now delayed until at least the end of April. Bayern’s backline is pretty thin too, with Alphonso Davies, Dayot Upamecano, and Hiroki Ito all sidelined.
Further forward, Serge Gnabry is pushing Leroy Sané for a starting spot after scoring off the bench last weekend. Still, Kompany is expected to stick with Sané, although Kingsley Coman is another option if needed.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
nter Milan possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Laimer, Dier, Kim, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Guerreiro, Sane; Kane
EXPERT PREDICTION
Inter Milan 1-1 Bayern Munich
