The Portuguese giants stunned Los Blancos 4-2 during the league phase, a victory that ultimately proved decisive in their progression. Now, they aim to replicate that intensity against opponents who arrive in Lisbon in strong domestic form but with lingering European inconsistencies.
Benfica only just secured their playoff berth, finishing 24th in the standings and qualifying on goal difference after that dramatic 4-2 triumph over Madrid. Across eight league-phase fixtures, they registered three wins and five defeats — a return that reflected volatility but also an ability to deliver when stakes were highest.
Under the guidance of Jose Mourinho, the Eagles have steadied. Four wins from their last five matches in all competitions, alongside a draw, suggest growing cohesion at a crucial juncture. Their most recent outing — a disciplined 2-1 away victory over Santa Clara — reinforced a sense of momentum heading into this heavyweight clash.
At the Estadio da Luz, Benfica remain tactically assertive. They press aggressively in wide areas and commit numbers forward in transition — an approach that unsettled Madrid previously. However, their Champions League metrics underline duality: 10 goals scored but 12 conceded in the league phase. Defensive structure remains a concern, particularly against elite transitional sides.
For Real Madrid, domestic rhythm contrasts with continental turbulence. A commanding 4-1 win over Real Sociedad last time out showcased their attacking depth, with Vinicius Junior producing a clinical brace.
In Europe, though, the narrative is more nuanced. Madrid finished ninth in the league phase with 15 points from eight matches — five wins and three defeats. They scored 21 goals, illustrating offensive potency, yet conceded 12, exposing periodic defensive disorganisation. Their last five Champions League matches have alternated between victory and defeat (WLWLW), an uncharacteristic lack of control for a club accustomed to knockout-stage authority.
The previous 4-2 defeat in Lisbon revealed vulnerabilities in Madrid’s defensive transitions, particularly when stretched by vertical passing and aggressive counter-pressing. Head coach Alvaro Arbeloa will likely prioritise structural compactness in this first leg, seeking territorial control rather than a chaotic exchange.
Given both sides’ attacking output and defensive fragility, another open contest appears plausible. The first leg dynamic may encourage calculated risk rather than full-throttle engagement, but neither team is naturally inclined toward conservatism.
Form Guide
Benfica (Champions League): LLWWLWBenfica (all competitions): LWWDWW
Real Madrid (Champions League): WLWLWL
Real Madrid (all competitions): WWLWWW
Injuries & Suspensions
Benfica’s defensive depth is slightly stretched. Alexander Bah has returned to training after a cruciate ligament injury but is unlikely to feature. Samuel Soares remains a doubt with a muscle issue, while Fredrik Aursnes is expected to miss out. Joao Veloso faces a late assessment, and Richard Rios, despite resuming training after a dislocated shoulder, is not anticipated to be involved.Real Madrid receive a significant boost with the return to fitness of Kylian Mbappe, who missed the win over Real Sociedad but is available for selection. However, Raul Asencio is suspended following accumulation of yellow cards, and Rodrygo serves a two-match UEFA ban after his red card in the previous meeting.
Jude Bellingham is ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Eder Militao continues rehabilitation from a tendon problem — absences that limit Madrid’s structural flexibility in midfield and central defence.
Possible Starting Lineups
Benfica:Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Real Madrid:
Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler
Expert Prediction
Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid
