The stakes are high for both sides. Benfica sit 29th in the 36-team table, two points adrift of the final qualification places, while Real Madrid are third but still not mathematically assured of a top-eight finish, with only a narrow gap separating them from the chasing pack.
Benfica’s Champions League campaign began in nightmarish fashion, as defeats in their opening four matches left them staring at an early exit. Back-to-back 2-0 victories over Ajax and Napoli briefly revived their hopes, but that momentum was halted by a 2-0 loss away to Juventus on matchday seven.
As a result, progression is no longer in Benfica’s hands. Mourinho’s men must beat Real Madrid and hope that results elsewhere fall kindly if they are to sneak into the knockout playoffs. While the task is daunting, the Eagles can draw confidence from their strong European pedigree and a surprisingly favourable head-to-head record against Madrid.
Benfica have lifted the Champions League trophy twice, famously defeating Real Madrid in the 1961–62 final, and they boast two wins from three previous meetings with Los Blancos, including a memorable 5-1 victory at the Estadio da Luz. Home form has also been encouraging, with Saturday’s emphatic 4-0 league win over Estrela Amadora marking a fourth consecutive victory in front of their own supporters.
That response was particularly important after a difficult spell which saw Benfica lose three of four matches and exit both domestic cup competitions. With little room for error, Europe now represents a potential lifeline for Mourinho’s side.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, arrive in Lisbon after a turbulent period of their own. A Super Cup final defeat to Barcelona triggered the dismissal of Xabi Alonso, and interim boss Alvaro Arbeloa began his tenure with a shock Copa del Rey exit to Albacete.
Since then, however, Madrid have steadied the ship. Three straight wins in all competitions have restored belief, including a 2-0 league success away to Villarreal where Kylian Mbappe struck twice to move Los Blancos within one point of the La Liga summit.
The French forward has also been devastating in Europe. His brace in a 6-1 demolition of Monaco last week took him to 11 Champions League goals this season, equalling Cristiano Ronaldo’s long-standing record for most goals in a single league-phase or group-stage campaign.
With five wins from seven matches, Madrid know that victory on Wednesday will secure direct passage to the last 16. Their confidence is further boosted by a dominant recent record against Portuguese opposition, having won eight of their last 10 UEFA encounters against teams from the Primeira Liga, including four successive away victories.
Injuries & Suspensions
Benfica remain without several key players. Alexander Bah, Samuel Soares, Dodi Lukebakio and Henrique Araujo are all sidelined through injury, while Richard Rios is set to miss a fourth consecutive match. January signing Sidny Lopes Cabral and recent arrival Rafa Silva are both ineligible for the league phase.There is, however, a landmark moment for captain Nicolas Otamendi, who is set to become just the third Argentine player to reach 100 Champions League appearances, after Lionel Messi and Angel Di Maria. Vangelis Pavlidis comes into the game in good form after ending a three-match goal drought with a weekend brace.
Real Madrid will again be without Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Antonio Rudiger due to injury. Aurelien Tchouameni returns after suspension, while Alvaro Carreras is poised to face his former club following his move from Benfica last summer.
Possible starting lineups
Benfica:Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Barreiro, Sudakov; Pavlidis
Real Madrid:
Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Tchouameni, Bellingham, Guler; Mastantuono, Mbappe, Vinicius
Expert Prediction
Benfica 2-3 Real Madrid
