United hold a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg, having delivered a dominant performance in Bilbao. Goals from Bruno Fernandes (twice) and Casemiro – all in the first half – helped the Red Devils take full control of the tie against a Bilbao side that finished the match with 10 men. That result ended Bilbao's perfect Europa League home record this season and snapped their eight-month unbeaten run at San Mames.
Still unbeaten in this season’s Europa League with eight wins and five draws, United are looking to become just the seventh team – and only the second English club after Chelsea in 2018-19 – to reach the final without losing a single match. But manager Ruben Amorim is staying grounded, reminding everyone that “anything can happen in one game.”
Since that impressive win in Spain, however, United came crashing back to reality with a chaotic 4-3 defeat to Brentford in the Premier League. Amorim fielded the club’s youngest-ever Premier League starting XI for that match, which highlighted the team’s ongoing struggles in domestic competition.
United currently sit 15th in the Premier League, with 16 defeats from 35 games. They’ve already confirmed their worst-ever points total in the Premier League era and can finish no higher than 12th. That means winning the Europa League is their only route to Champions League football next season.
History is firmly on their side: all 133 teams who’ve won the first leg of a Europa League or UEFA Cup knockout tie by three or more goals away from home have gone on to advance. On top of that, United haven’t lost any of their last 11 home games in the Europa League since a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad in September 2022.
For Athletic Bilbao, the task is massive. They haven’t reached a European final since the 2011-12 season, and now they need a historic comeback at Old Trafford to make it to a final that will be held at their own stadium, San Mames.
Their domestic form hasn’t helped either. With just five wins in their last 14 La Liga games, Bilbao’s hold on a top-four spot is slipping. Villarreal are now just three points behind them with four matches to go. Over the weekend, Bilbao played out a 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad, managing only one shot on target all game.
Goals have been in short supply for Ernesto Valverde’s side. They’ve failed to score in six of their last nine games in all competitions, including two of their last three in Europe. Valverde admitted the challenge of balancing European and domestic commitments has taken its toll.
To pull off the near-impossible, Bilbao would need to replicate what Olympiakos did in last season’s Conference League – overturning a three-goal home loss to win the second leg 6-1. No Spanish team has ever done it, and only twice before have Bilbao lost both legs of a European knockout tie – the last time being in 2017-18.
Their away record in England doesn’t inspire much hope either, with seven losses in nine trips (W1 D1). Still, their one win was memorable: a 3-2 triumph at Old Trafford back in 2012 under Marcelo Bielsa.
INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
Manchester United are facing a nervous wait over the fitness of Matthijs de Ligt, who was forced off with a muscle injury during the recent defeat to Brentford. Both De Ligt and Toby Collyer, who’s dealing with a leg issue, will be assessed before Thursday’s kickoff. Meanwhile, Lisandro Martinez (knee), Joshua Zirkzee (thigh), Diogo Dalot (calf), and Ayden Heaven (ankle) are all still unavailable.
Last weekend, 17-year-old Chido Obi-Martin made history as the youngest player ever to start a Premier League match for United. However, he’s not eligible to play in the Europa League, which means Rasmus Hojlund is expected to return to lead the line. He’ll likely be supported by captain Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho in attack.
Manager Ruben Amorim is also considering a few tactical tweaks. Victor Lindelof might be handed a start in central defense, while Noussair Mazraoui could be used as a right-sided center-back if Amorim decides to give Amad Diallo a chance at right wing-back—Diallo has impressed off the bench since returning from injury.
Athletic Bilbao have some selection issues of their own. Defender Dani Vivian is suspended following his red card in the first leg, so Aitor Paredes is expected to step in alongside Yeray Alvarez at the heart of the defense.
Manager Ernesto Valverde says several key players will need late fitness tests, including winger Nico Williams, veteran full-back Oscar De Marcos, and top scorer Oihan Sancet, who missed the first leg with a hamstring injury.
If both Sancet and Nico Williams are ruled out, expect Inaki Williams and Alex Berenguer to operate out wide, with Unai Gomez playing behind either Maroan Sannadi or Gorka Guruzeta up front. At right-back, Andoni Gorosabel could get the nod if De Marcos isn’t ready.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Onana; Lindelof, Maguire, Yoro; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Agirrezabala; De Marcos, Paredes, Alvarez, Berchiche; De Galarreta, Jauregizar; I. Williams, Berenguer, N. Williams; Sannad
EXPERT PREDICTION
Manchester United 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
